Predicting the 2020 American Presidential Election
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A Podcast by Michael Richardson
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YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiXdn59nZSA&t=3510s
SoundCloud Link: https://soundcloud.com/user-918440573/predicting-the-2020-american-presidential-election
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Hello everyone. My name is Michael Richardson, and I would like to welcome you to this podcast. As many of you know, July 4, 1776 stands as a monumental day for our United States. Despite all the years that have passed since then, the founding father’s ideas of freedom and liberty still hold true in our democracy even as our nation has consistently evolved, from the time of the Articles of Confederation to the ratification of the Constitution, from isolationism in the early twentieth century to interventionism following WWII, from the first party to the second party system, and much more. One thing that has managed to remain over the past 244 years, however, is our voting system, where every four years citizens across the country cast their ballot for who they believe should serve as commander in chief. As the 59th American presidential election approaches on November 3, 2020, I wanted to create a podcast predicting who each state will cast their electors for. Only one individual can manage to secure 270 electoral votes needed for victory, and the stakes are higher than they’ve ever been for either party.
I hope you will join me for the journey in deciphering the minds of voters across the nation. And while voters already know who they will find on their ballot come November, I wanted to talk about some precedent for the Republican and Democratic candidates, starting with the Republican nominee.
Note: Statistics used in this podcast were last updated on March 28, 2020.
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Republican Nominee:
It likely came as no surprise that incumbent Donald John Trump has amassed enough delegates to secure his nomination at the Republican National Convention in August. He is the only president to be impeached and be nominated for a second term - with Andrew Johnson barely making an effort to win the Democratic nomination in 1868 coming in just one vote shy of complete removal from office, and Bill Clinton being acquitted in his second term - the fact of the matter is that very few Republicans supported removing Trump in the first place: A FiveThirtyEight survey found that only 9% of Republicans were supportive of removing him from office and just one Republican voted guilty on Article one of abuse of power, showcasing a sharp divide among our nation’s biggest parties that was not close to the â…” majority needed to remove the president.
But only three presidents have been impeached, what does that say for other Republican nominees that ran for reelection? Well, of the Republican presidents who were able to run again, only Chester A. Arthur lost the nomination, and the Republicans nominated Thomas Dewey twice in 1944 and 48, showcasing how the GOP is not keen on giving up on their candidates. Afterall, Trump did not not have much competition for the ballot, with Joe Walsh dropping out of the race shortly after the Iowa Caucus and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld receiving only one delegate in Iowa. Truth be told, the Republican party had little reason not to nominate Trump when the economy prospered for a vast majority of his administration, witnessing historically low levels of unemployment and an elevated stock market that was solely undone by a pandemic that affected markets worldwide. Furthermore, Trump’s appeal to his constituents with economic success and fulfilled campaign promises was able to bolster him to the Republican nomination. And in November, he will face a very recognizable Democrat.
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Democratic Nominee:
This year’s campaign for the Democratic nomination was among the most contentious in recent history, with old timers such as Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden going up against those relatively new to the political spectrum, such as billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. However, it’s little surprise that Joe Biden has become the presumptive nominee; the Democratic party has a tendency to nominate vice presidents on the ticket, with John C. Breckinridge, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, and Al Gore all having served in the White House before securing their presidential nomination. Now, unlike those nominees, the Democratic party is not currently in control of the Executive Branch. However, it's crucial to note that Joe Biden, the most recent Democratic Vice President, never campaigned in 2016; instead, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton won the nomination, someone who served with the previous administration. Noticing a trend? Democratic voters were incredibly likely to nominate Biden to the presidential ticket judging by his former high rank in office, and Biden has a long history with the Democratic Party: He was a senator from Delaware from 1973-2009, and the 47th Vice President of the United States from 2009-2017. Biden’s long history with the party has earned him the title of Uncle Joe - someone incredibly trustworthy to his base. Biden’s overall moderate stance on issues compared to senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren made him an all around more comfortable and reassuring candidate, and his vision to restore the “soul of America” undoubtedly resonates with citizens who feel the country has become more divided under the Trump administration.
Biden also has the legacy of Barack Obama to lean on - a president who was widely favored by the Democratic party, reaching approval ratings upwards of 59% by the end of his presidency (Gallup). Furthermore, nominating Biden gives Democrats the best chance they have to beat Trump in 2020, with the former Vice President appealing to African Americans - the largest constituency of the Democratic party. Even before his overwhelming southern primary victories, in a survey of 1,088 non-Hispanic black adults co-conducted by The Washington Post and Ipsos in January 2020, 48% said Biden was the best choice for president, with second place finisher Bernie Sanders polling at only 20%. Now, do I predict he will receive 270 electoral votes when the time comes for voters to make their opinions heard? Let’s find out, going through each of the fifty states as well as the District of Columbia.
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Alabama (9)
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The states in the Deep South tend to lean Republican with their large agricultural economies and religious populace, and Alabama is no exception. 62% of Alabama voters voted for Trump in 2016, compared to 34% for Hillary Clinton; a 28 point margin that even the most astute of politicians are unlikely to break. In fact, the state has consistently voted for the Republican nominee with 60% of the vote, starting with the 1980 election, where Ronald Reagan was able to guide a diverse coalition to an astounding 489 to 49 electoral win over incumbent Jimmy Carter. Continuing Republican domination across the state, six of Alabama’s seven representatives are Republican, governor Kay Ivey is part of the GOP, and the state legislature is held by Republicans who control 77 of 105 seats in the House and 27 of 35 seats in the Senate. While Junior senator Doug Jones is a Democrat, that is not abnormal for a solid Republican state.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in December 2019, Alabama’s unemployment rate stood at 2.7%, a decrease of 2.8% since Trump’s inauguration and .9% below the national average, and GDP has risen over the Trump presidency to $232 billion in the third quarter of 2019; these impressive statistics highlight a strong economy that Alabamians are unlikely to vote against. Moreover, Joe Biden’s messages are unlikely to appeal to the state’s massive rural and religious demographics who were not swayed by Obama in 2008 and 2012, making Trump almost certain to win the state in November. Alabama’s nine electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
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Alaska (3)
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The Last Frontier has voted Republican in all but one election since it gained statehood in January 1959: Lyndon B. Johnson’s landslide victory in 1964. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that I expect a similar Republican victory in 2020. The Democratic platform favoring environmentalism does not appeal to the numerous blue collar workers in the state working in the oil and gas industries - Alaska’s largest economic contributors - and Trump has been a consistent voice for those workers. Also, John McCain’s running mate Sarah Palin was the former governor of Alaska, and the two were able to secure over a 20 point margin against Barack Obama in 2008 in the state; while Romney and Trump won by less than 15 point margins in the state in their respective elections, that is nevertheless a significant victory that Joe Biden is unlikely to change. Alaska’s three electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Arizona (11)
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The home state of former Republican senator John McCain, Arizona has been reliably red since the 1950s, even being one of the six states that voted for Barry Goldwater in 1964. Trump managed to win the state by a 3.5 point margin in 2016, even managing to win Maricopa county, whose county seat of the capital, Phoenix, is the fifth largest city in the nation, a notable feat when urban areas tend to lean Democratic. According to the US Census Bureau, as of July 1, 2019, Arizona has a population of 82.8% white, with 31.6% of caucasians being Hispanic or Latino. Trump’s strong stance on immigration makes it so he is unlikely to secure the state's minority demographics, but Trump is almost certain to secure blue-collar workers in the state’s massive mining industry; Arizona is the second largest producer of metal in the nation, with copious amounts of copper attracting numerous businesses in the state. Although Arizona has one more Democratic congressperson over the Republican party, which is unusual for a traditionally Republican state, it’s unlikely Trump will lose here with his ability to secure a massive urban county in the previous election and appeal to rural workers who dislike Biden’s proposed environmental policies. Arizona’s eleven electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Arkansas (6)
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Despite her husband winning his home state in both of his elections, Hillary Clinton was unable to capture Arkansas in 2016 by over 26 points. While voters here likely remember Bill Clinton’s appeal to a “place called hope”, the 1992 and 1996 elections were outliers to a deep southern, Bible Belt state that has been reliably Republican since 1980. Like Alabama, agriculture contributes a significant portion to the state’s gross domestic product, and those workers tend to lean Republican. Arkansas is also home to the world’s largest corporation by revenue, Walmart, which is frequently used as an indicator of the economy and employs hundreds across the state that are unlikely to vote against Trump due to the strong state of their company. Needless to say, the hope that exists for Democratic voters in this state has all but dwindled since Clinton’s presidency, and if Obama was unable to persuade the thousands of Arkansas farmers to vote for him, Joe Biden will almost certainly face the same fate. Arkansas’s six electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
California (55)
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California could not possibly be more different than the time of the state’s most well-known politician: Ronald Reagan. California is the first of the “big three” Democratic stronghold states and contains the largest amount of electors, and it wears that symbol with an iron fist; the last time a Republican won the state was in 1988 when George H. W. Bush quite literally obliterated former Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis by riding off the heels of the Reagan Coalition. Although Clinton won the state in 1992, the true death nail to the Republican party in California came with California’s Proposition 187, which would have barred illegal immigrants from using non-emergency health care, public education, and other services in the state; the ballot measure quickly became associated with the Republican party who have not resonated with Californians ever since, particularly with the state’s large hispanic population who have leaned democratic since the 1994 proposition. House speaker and staunch critic of President Trump, Nancy Pelosi, has served as a representative from California since 1987, further showcasing Democratic strength in the state. Hillary Clinton was able to beat Donald Trump with 61.73% of the vote, a similar number to Barack Obama, and Joe Biden is likely to win by similar percentages; according to a CNN poll conducted December 4-8 of 2019, Biden polled over 20 points ahead of Trump - a significant figure that Trump is unlikely to mitigate. Furthermore, Joe Biden will almost certainly be able to rally the Obama Coalition to succeed heavily in the state, particularly in the massively populated, minority-centric urban areas. California’s fifty-five electoral votes easily go to Joe Biden.
Colorado (9)
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The first of the thirteen battleground states, Colorado will certainly be a nail-biter come November. Home of the mile high city of Denver, Colorado has a long history of voting for the incumbent president, with the last time they voted against the party controlling the Executive branch being 1996, but even then Bob Dole only managed to win by 1.3 points. Trump does have significant ground in the state, managing to secure 43% of the vote by appealing to the state’s rural voters who work in the agriculture and mining industries, and flipping five counties that Obama won in 2012; Las Animas and Pueblo county are standouts because they had not voted Republican since Nixon’s impressive victory in 1972. However, the Democratic platform has more power in the state; Colorado has had a Democratic governor for 22 of the past 30 years - one of them, John Hickenlooper, was a presidential candidate in this election and is vying for a senate seat. Colorado also has four Democratic representatives, as well as Democratic senior senator Michael Bennet who similarly campaigned for the nation’s highest office. Additionally, the state has a record of Democratic initiatives, being one of the first states to legalize the recreational use of the cannabis drug and even imposing term limits on members of public office - a platform advocated by former governor John Hickenlooper and billionaire Tom Steyer in their respective 2020 campaigns. By voting for Clinton in 2016, Colorado solidified their Democratic status and Biden is even favored over Trump to win in the state; Emerson College conducted a poll on August 16-19 in 2019 that had Biden ten points ahead of Trump, a margin that is particularly rare in battleground states. Furthermore, Biden will likely secure Colorado’s nine electoral votes given the state’s recent Democratic initiatives that give his party more power in the state. Colorado’s nine electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Connecticut (7)
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The last time Connecticut voted red was in 1988, and recent elections have seen Democratic candidates win by over ten point margins, and all of the state’s senators and representatives are Democratic, including governor Ned Lamont. Therefore, it's likely no surprise that I foresee Joe Biden winning here in November. Afterall, most of the state’s biggest industries are liberal fields, such as insurance, bioscience, and green technology, all of which have their respective Democratic platforms, most notably Obamacare and the Green New Deal. The Democratic party is often associated with more government intervention compared to the Republican traditional approach, and Connecticut abides by the same ideology, passing amendment two to the state Constitution in the 2018 midterms with over 84% of the vote that “requires â…” of the state legislature to authorize the transfer, sale, or disposal of land under control of Connecticut’s agriculture or environmental protection departments” (Ballotpedia). Moreover, for Connecticut to turn red in 2020, it would require the Republican party to reverse their lesser government approach, something that Biden’s policies are inherently against which attracts Connecticut voters to his campaign. Connecticut’s seven electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Delaware (3)
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The first state admitted into the Union, Delaware has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush’s landslide victory; in fact, the last time Delaware voted differently than Connecticut was the 1976 election, where Delaware opted for Carter over incumbent Gerald Ford. Delaware is where Joe Biden made a name for himself by representing the state in the Senate from 1973 to 2009, being elected at the youngest possible age for a senate seat, using the momentum he gained from constant victory to even attempt a presidential run in 1988. Needless to say, Delaware loves Biden, to the point where a Gonzales Research Poll conducted in January 2020 has him leading by sixteen points over Trump. And the Democratic party certainly has strength in the state: all the state’s senators and representatives align with the Democratic party, and New Castle County - which accounts for over sixty percent of the state’s population - is largely urban, even including the highest populated city in the state - Wilmington, Delaware. Using the respect he has garnered among voters for his time in the senate and vice presidential tenure, I predict Joe Biden will win the state he owes to his political success. Delaware’s three electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Florida (29)
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The Sunshine State is the very definition of a battleground state; ever since George W. Bush’s 500 vote win in 2000 that spawned a landmark Supreme Court case, Republicans and Democrats have campaigned here tirelessly to secure their all important votes on election day, which often comes down to narrow margins. Donald Trump managed a 1.2 point victory in 2016, able to convince a lot of unaccounted for agricultural workers to come out to the polls - those same blue collar workers are the ones who make up the “silent majority” who Nixon clamored for in 1972, and felt a resurgence under Donald Trump. While agriculture is certainly an important contributor to the state’s gross domestic product, the tourism and aerospace industries are a larger factor, with many flocking out to Disneyland over winter break or NASA enthusiasts setting up a watch party for a rocket launch at the iconic Cape Canaveral Air Force Station; needless to say, the influence of Florida on the economy should not be understated, and its economy gives little reason to vote against Trump. Job growth is up 2.8% year on year, and unemployment has dropped by 1.7% since Trump’s inauguration as of December 2019.
The Republican party has a large influence in the state as well, with 14 of 27 representatives, two well known senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and governor Rick DeSantis belonging to the GOP, giving Trump a better shot in the election. While the state’s large Hispanic population made up of a lot of Cuban immigrants particularly in Miami-Dade and Broward counties makes it so the Democratic party will always have a large base in the state that Biden is likely to secure, Florida’s bustling economy and Republican influence likely ensures Trump’s voters stay will him to secure him the state’s electoral votes, even by extremely narrow margins with an anticipated Democratic surge at the polls. In one of the closest races of the election, Florida’s twenty-nine electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
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Georgia (16)
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Georgia has voted Republican in the last six elections, making Trump almost a certain victor in the state come election day. While Trump won by over a 2.5 point smaller margin than Romney in 2012, he was still able to succeed over Clinton by five points in the state. Barack Obama was not able to convince voters in the state partly due to his environmental initiatives, and Joe Biden is likely to face the same fate as he campaigns off of Obama’s presidential achievements. Economically, Georgia houses many Fortune 500 companies, including Home Depot, UPS, Coca-Cola, and Aflac, and is a massive mining and agricultural state; remember that Jimmy Carter worked as a Peanut farmer before his presidential bid, and peanut farming is still a large contributor to the state’s gdp. Those same miners and farmers are unlikely to vote for Biden in 2020, and have helped elect the state’s two current Republican senators, nine of fourteen Republican congresspeople, and Republican governor. This is also a state deeply rooted in tradition: Georgia was one of only five states to vote for segregationist George Wallace in the 1968 election in a bid to return to pre-Civil War custom, and like many other states in the Bible Belt, a vast majority of Georgian residents are deeply religious, with a 2014 Religious Landscape Study showing that 79% of Georgian adults identity as Christian, 38% of which are protestant - a group that tends to lean Republican. Trump’s ability to keep his promises will fire up his Georgian base to go out and vote in November, allowing him to edge out what is likely to be a significant lead over Biden. Georgia’s sixteen electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Hawaii (4)
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Although Hillary Clinton received roughly eight points less than Obama gained in his native state in 2012, she still managed to beat Trump by 32 points - huge margins that are highly unlikely to be turned to the other party. Among the many reasons why Hawaii has voted Democratic since 1988 is that a vast majority of the population is centralized in urban areas, which have a unique community-like vibe naturally being so far from the contiguous United States. Add to that over a third of the population being of Asian, Native American or Pacific Islander descent, all of the state’s congress people being Democratic, and only six members of the state’s 76 state legislatures being Republicans, Biden is almost certain to win a state where his constituencies make up a vast majority of the population. Also, Biden’s climate change initiatives will undoubtedly resonate with those in the state who fear rising sea levels could soon ravish their homes, helping to grant him a significant win over Trump. Hawaii’s four electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Idaho (4)
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Idaho is one of the many midwestern states that belong to the red Republican wall - a gigantic swath of less populated states that all together make a huge difference in the electoral college. Idaho has voted Republican since 1964, and often by overwhelming margins; all of the state’s congresspeople are part of the GOP, and the state’s House of Representatives is composed of 64 Republicans to only 14 Democrats. A massive white, religious demographic gives Republicans a strong foothold in the state, combined with the massive amount of agricultural workers that all together grow over â…“ of America’s potatoes. Although former CIA operations officer Evan McMullin had his second strongest showing in the state, taking votes away from the two major parties, Trump is unlikely to lose his nearly 32 point lead in a state where Joe Biden will likely not even campaign, knowing a majority of rural voters here will likely vote against him. Idaho’s four electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Illinois (20)
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The land of Lincoln could not be more politically different from 1860; Illinois is the second of three Democratic stronghold states, voting for the Democratic nominee since 1992. Cook County is overwhelmingly liberal, accounting for over one-third of the state’s population and of course being home to Chicago - a worldwide trade center that bolsters Illinois to the fifth largest economic contributor in the country, helped by several Fortune 500 companies such as Boeing, Kraft Heinz, McDonalds, United Airlines, Walgreens, and more being headquartered in the Chicago metropolitan area. Barack Obama was easily able to carry his home state in both elections and by the end of his administration had a positive approval spread, helping to propel Hillary Clinton to a 17 point victory over Trump. Joe Biden is likely to have similar margins to Barack Obama in the state by appealing to Obama’s former constituents, particularly Illinois’ large African American population. Recently, Illinois has instituted many Democratic customs, such as a law to raise the minimum wage to fifteen dollars per hour by 2025, a policy Biden claimed there was “overwhelming need” to implement in a 2014 speech. As if Trump didn’t have any less of a chance to win the state, both senators, 13 of 18 representatives, and the governor are Democratic. Simply put, with urban Cook county having such a massive influence in the state, Trump will likely not be able to rely on a rural firewall to get his votes, and the Democrats are almost certain to maintain their stronghold to safely carry Obama’s vice president. Illinois’s twenty electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Indiana (11)
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Although Indiana voted for Obama in 2008, the state could not be more Republican, only voting for Obama by one point and previously voting for a Democrat in 1964. Trump saw another large margin in this state, aided by evangelical Christians and those affected by deindustrialization in the late 1970s. Mike Pence on the ballot certainly boosted Trump’s performance, since Pence enacted tax cuts as governor from 2013-2017 and has been an advocate of coal miners - a base who was instrumental to Trump’s victory in 2016. With the tendency for presidents and vice presidents to win their home state, Trump is likely to win this state by similar margins in 2020 with Mike Pence already confirmed as his running mate. Even if Joe Biden drastically alters his message to appeal to rust belt voters, such as through less environmental activism or tax cuts, Trump is almost certain to win the state judging by the state’s Republican presidential precedent. Indiana’s eleven electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Iowa (6)
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America’s first caucus lies in its heartland, which can be a huge help for candidates to garner momentum into their campaigns, even if Joe Biden’s nomination without winning the state in February might say otherwise. However, Joe Biden’s loss does not bode well at his chances at winning Iowa’s six electoral votes; in fact, RealClearPolitics has Trump leading by an average of 4.8 points over the former vice president, which aligns with the state’s large agricultural workers who live in the corn belt. Iowa is consistently rated as one of the top educational and job growth states, and unemployment has decreased by .6% as of December 2019 since Trump’s inauguration, giving Iowa voters less of a reason to go against Trump. Although the state does only have one Republican representative, Senate Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley has served here since 1981 and junior senator Joni Ernst is also Republican, demonstrating the conservative beliefs of voters. Moreover, Trump’s appeal to the state’s massive rural population with a prospering economy will motivate voters to go out to the polls to make sure Joe Biden does not win in a state that is performing well under the current administration. Iowa’s six electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Kansas (6)
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The last time Kansas voted Democratic was 1964, and before that was 1936, so it's likely no surprise I think Trump will win here in 2020, especially judging by Trump’s 20 point margin of victory in 2016. Like many midwestern states, agriculture is a large contributor to the state’s gross domestic product, and those blue-collar workers constitute a voting bloc who tends to lean Republican; Republicans also have the advantage of oil workers, who Trump has consistently served as a voice for. Although there is some Democratic influence in the state, with one representative being Democratic as well as governor Laura Kelly, Republicans are far more likely to win by appealing to the state’s rural workers instead of those in urban areas who work in liberal fields. While Trump’s controversial tariffs could cause him to lose some voters, Joe Biden is unlikely to erase the incumbent’s 20 point lead in the prior election enough to pilot the former vice president to the state’s six electoral votes. Kansas’s six electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Kentucky (8)
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Kentucky is another reliably red state, with Trump edging out a nearly 30 point margin over Clinton in the prior election; in fact, Clinton managed to win only two of the state’s 120 counties, despite her husband winning the state’s electors twice. Prominent senators Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul are from the state, the former serving since 1985 and is currently the Senate Majority Leader whom Trump has repeatedly praised. Kentucky’s 50% protestant demographic as well as a large number of agricultural workers and coal miners tend to lean Republican and are unlikely to side against Trump when he has largely kept his campaign promises. Although some Republican strength in the state might have been lost since 2016, with the 2019 gubernatorial election having Democrat Andy Beshear edge out a narrow win over incumbent Republican Matt Bevin, Joe Biden’s platform is unlikely to gain footing in a state that never voted for Obama. Kentucky’s eight electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Louisiana (8)
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Louisiana has voted Republican in every election since 2000, making it an easy state for Trump to win. It’s understandable why the state has voted Republican for the last four elections; George W. Bush’s steadfast effort in bringing the state back from the wreckage Hurricane Katrina wrought in 2005 allowed Republicans to gain approval in the state. Even though some of those areas still lie underwater and the state’s economy is struggling compared to the rest of the country, with a 18.6% poverty rate in 2018 compared to the national average of 11.8% at the time, and an unemployment rate 1.7 points above the national average in December 2019, areas such as New Orleans are doing well economically and unemployment has gone down and gdp has gone up over Trump’s presidency, lending him more support. Agriculture, fishing, and petroleum are large contributors to the economy, with farmers producing corn and soybeans, and fisherman producing the most crawfish in the world. Although the Democratic party does have a significant base in Louisiana, with 32.7% of the population being African American or Black, as well as a large amount of lower class workers who feel the Democratic platform will allow them to live a better life, a much larger force of blue collar, middle class workers in rural areas will likely ensure Trump does not lose his 19 point margin of victory in 2016 to Joe Biden. Louisiana’s eight electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Maine (4)
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Along with Nebraska, Maine uses a different type of voting system for presidential elections, granting two electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote and allocating one for whoever wins the popular vote in each congressional district; Maine adopted this system after the 1968 election, where voters were scared neither Humphrey nor Nixon would receive a majority of votes; and by 1992, they were probably happy to have instituted the change, since Ross Perot had his strongest performance in the state at a whopping 30.44% of the vote, making it so neither major party candidate was able to win a majority. As a side note, Maine used to be a congressional district for Massachusetts before the Missouri Compromise of 1820, so that could have influenced the state’s decision to allocate electors based on congressional districts. In 2016, although he lost the popular vote, Trump managed to win over voters in the second congressional district, granting him one electoral vote in the state. Although Maine used to be the most conservative New England state, it has shifted and been reliably Democratic since 1992. However, in 2016 Hillary Clinton managed just shy of a three point victory in a state Obama had won by over 15 points in 2012, a radical party shift that often spells change in the next election: LBJ managed to win 68% of Maine’s popular vote in 1964, but Humphrey only managed 55%, and by 1972, Nixon came back with over 61% of the vote - and I predict Trump will do the same. Hillary Clinton’s lost voters in the state likely signals a change of beliefs among Maine’s former Obama supporters who are unlikely to vote for Joe Biden having turned to Trump. Moreover, Biden will likely secure the state’s more urban first congressional district, but a prospering economy will allow Trump to secure more votes in the state that will propel him to win not only the second congressional district, but also the popular vote, giving him three electoral votes total. Ultimately, Trump receives Maine’s popular vote and the second congressional district to get three electoral votes from the state, and Joe Biden gets one electoral vote from the first congressional district, marking the first time since 1988 the state has sided with a Republican presidential candidate.
Maryland (10)
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Maryland is well known as a state dominated by its urban areas, with Montgomery, Prince George, Baltimore, and Baltimore City counties accounting for a majority of the population; unsurprisingly, Trump would have a tough wall to climb to win this state in November, especially with RealClearPolitics averaging a approval spread for the incumbent at -28.5 despite lowered unemployment in the state and growing gdp, where Obama had the opposite at positive 21.5 point spread. Needless to say, if voters are unhappy about the economy, they will not vote for Trump. Obama’s approval will skyrocket Biden to victory in this state, amplified by support from the state’s minority communities that account for over forty percent of the population, as well as those who work in Maryland’s large federal sector. Maryland’s ten electoral votes easily go to Joe Biden.
Massachusetts (11)
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To those of us who live here, it's little surprise why Massachusetts has voted Democratic in every election since 1984. The culture of the Bay state is one deeply rooted in change; Massachusetts was one of the first states admitted to the union, one of the first settlements in the new world, and among the first states to legalize gay marriage and medicinal marijuana; for reference, Massachusetts was the only state to vote for George McGovern in the 1972 election, and former Republican governor Mitt Romney did not even win here in 2012 while his predecessors Michael Dukakis and John Kerry did in 1988 and 2004 respectively, showing our desire for Democratic candidates. Although supporters of state senator and former Presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren could find Biden’s message to be unappealing, Trump is unlikely to win due to the state’s precedent of voting Democratic, giving Biden the ability to continue the Democratic trend of carrying every county in the state for the eighth consecutive election. Massachusetts’s eleven electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Michigan (16)
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An unexpected influx of blue collar workers to the polls caused this former blue wall state to turn to Trump by a narrow margin of 10,000 votes, solidifying its battleground status in this year’s general election. Michigan’s capital, Detroit, serves as the automobile center of the world, with headquarters for General Motors, Ford Motor, Penske Automotive Group, and more companies in the surrounding area. Whether or not Trump wins Michigan’s blue collar workers depends on how well his USMCA deal benefits them, but the president has repeatedly communicated with General Motors to bring workers back to America, undoubtedly helping his chances. However, the 2018 midterms saw both Democrats take back all of the seats seats held by Republicans, and the gubernatorial election saw Democrat Gretchen Whitmer win the governorship by nearly ten points; now, there are two Democratic senators and representatives are mostly Democratic, demonstrating how the state is turning away from Trump. The Democratic party will have a similar influx of members go to the polls this time around that I believe will spell doom for the incumbent, since Barack Obama managed to win by over ten point margins in the state in 2008 and 2012 and Biden is leading Trump by an average of 4.4 points in the state according to RealClearPolitics. Although Michigan’s economy is performing well, that is likely not enough to stop the Obama coalition - composed of minorities such as the state’s 14.1% African American and Black population - from rushing out to the polls for a candidate they will likely have enthusiasm for unlike in 2016, allowing Joe Biden to win over the tiny margin the Democrats lost by in the state in 2016. For voters who have been displaced by automation in the state and believe climate change should be described as a national security risk, they will find someone to like in Biden unlike the incumbent. Michigan’s sixteen electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Minnesota (10)
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Although many consider Minnesota to be a swing state in the upcoming election with Clinton winning by only 1.5 points in 2016, I don’t see a scenario where Trump persuades enough voting blocs to secure Minnesota’s popular vote. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican was 1972, and they were the only state to vote for Walter Mondale in 1984. The state’s tendency to vote blue translates to its congresspeople as well, with both serving senators, including senior senator and former presidential candidate Amy Koluchar, five of eight representatives, and the governor all affiliating with the Democratic party. Although agriculture is hugely important in the state, producing a large amount of hogs, corn, soybeans, and wheat, those rural Republican voters were unable to create enough of a firewall to elevate Trump against the twin cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, belonging to Hennepin and Ramsey counties, respectively. Although the state senate is slightly controlled by Republicans, the House has a significant majority of Democrats and Trump would need just shy of a Republican Minneapolis miracle to win this state in 2020 - the one with the highest voter turnout in 2016, nonetheless - especially if Obama managed to win by over seven point margins twice and those voters will most likely turn out for their former vice president. Minnesota’s ten electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Mississippi (6)
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Like all of its neighbors, Mississippi is a reliably Republican state that will almost certainly vote red in 2020. Trump managed to secure a 17.8 point victory, an increase of six points over Mitt Romney, and the last time the state voted Democratic was 1976 for southern native Jimmy Carter. Large urban counties such as Rankin, Harrison, DeSoto, and Jackson voted for Trump in 2016, helped by a large number of Republican voters within the state’s 77% protestant population and massive agriculture industry. Two Republican senators, a Republican governor, and only one Democratic representative demonstrates the state’s Republican dominance. Despite Mississippi’s unemployment rate remaining relatively unchanged since Trump’s inauguration and retaining its status as one of the poorest states in America with only a $23,434 per capita income and 19.7% of the state living in poverty, it's highly unlikely Joe Biden will win the state that Obama lost twice with his lack of appeal to blue collar workers (US Census Bureau). Mississippi’s six electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Missouri (10)
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The Show-Me is one of America’s biggest bellwethers, in the last century only voting for the losing candidate in 1956, 2008, and 2012. An increasing Republican presence and Trump’s substantial 18.5 point margin of victory practically secures his victory here in 2020, but it's also important to understand why Missouri has shifted so dramatically to the right. Arguably the biggest contributor to Trump’s runaway victory is the state’s rural-urban divide, with the existence of two completely different economies and lifestyles between the state’s relatively small urban centers compared to the vast swath of farmland that lies outside. Obama’s more urban-centric message did not appeal to blue collar workers in the state, and Joe Biden’s platform is unlikely to resonate as a result. The New York Farm Bureau, which in itself is part of the American Farm Bureau Foundation which has over six million members, opposes a minimum wage increase fearing it would make already thin margins even thinner, and as someone who has gone on record supporting a wage increase, Joe Biden is unlikely to appease voters with that policy alone. Contrast that with Trump’s more rural-centric message that does not support a minimum wage increase, advocates tax cuts, and supports less government environmental regulation, and you have a candidate that resonates with a majority of Missourian voters. The economy is prospering under the Trump administration, with unemployment going down from 4.2% in January 2017 to 3.4% in December 2019, and real GDP growth in Missouri in 2017 and 2018 was positive compared to 2016, with 2018 experiencing 2.4% growth (Statistica). Moreover, it's no surprise that eight of ten congresspeople are red, governor Mike Parson is Republican, and both houses of the General Assembly are held by a roughly two-thirds majority by Republicans given how well the Republican party has fared with working-class voters. Therefore, Trump will likely receive another runaway victory in the state, and Joe Biden will lose one of the nation’s historic bellwethers. Missouri’s ten electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Halfway Interlude
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Now that half of the states have been covered, lets take a look at each candidate’s current electoral tally. Currently, Trump is carrying 15 states and Maine’s second congressional district for a total of 136 electors, while Biden is only carrying ten states and Maine’s first congressional district but has a narrow lead with 146 electors. Joe Biden’s victory in California accounts for over a third of his electoral vote at this point, helping him to edge out a lead despite a smaller number of states. The Democratic party has taken back Michigan but lost Maine’s popular vote for the first time since 1988, and Trump has unsurprisingly resonated with voters in the midwestern and southern United States, while picking up a pivotal battleground in Florida. Whether or not Trump wins this election depends on whether he can secure the rust belt states who voted for him in 2016 - areas Democrats will campaign tirelessly in. But is there a chance that the 2020 election could be an electoral landslide for Trump or Biden? Let’s try to find out as the second half of my predictions starts now.
Montana (3)
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Montana has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992, and given Trump’s 20 point margin of victory here in 2016, it's likely the Republican trend will continue. Although Democratic senior senator John Tester and governor Steve Bullock might appear to give this state a shot at leaning liberal in 2020, the state’s dominant white, protestant, and rural demographics are a breeding ground for Republican support. Economically, Montana’s vast amounts of forests allow for plentiful lumber production, and mining is a large industry, employing blue collar workers who are likely to vote for Trump due to a stable economic sector. While I would predict a Trump landslide in this state, the state’s large Grizzly Bear demographic - the biggest of the lower 48 states - complicates that claim as they tend to lean moderate, and there have been no polls conducted among their population for the upcoming general election. It’s safe to assume, however, that they will not be voting for their long time political rivals, the Polar Bears. Nevertheless, I predict a Republican victory in a state where Joe Biden’s platform, particularly his environmental advocacy, holds little ground. Montana’s three electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Nebraska (5)
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The home state of the 38th President of the United States, Gerald Ford, and the place where three-time Democratic presidential candidate William Jennings Bryan served as senator for 14 years, Nebraska uses an electoral voting system based on popular vote and congressional districts just like Maine. The last time a Republican did not gain any electoral votes in the state was 1964, and the most recent election where a Democrat managed an electoral vote in the state was 2008 where Obama won the state’s urban second congressional district while he lost the state by roughly 15 points. Eight years later, Donald Trump was able to improve McCain’s margin by ten points, and Nebraska’s current congresspeople and governor are all Republican. Nebraska’s large rural and protestant populations are traditionally Republican and are likely to vote for Trump due to the state’s growing gross domestic product, despite a relatively unchanged unemployment rate since 2017. While Nebraska’s second congressional district is a toss up, Trump still managed to win here in 2016 and is unlikely to lose his significant base in urban Douglas and Lancaster counties, although they barely swung from Republican to Democrat in the prior election. Therefore, I predict a Trump victory in a state where Biden holds little ground since voters were not appeased by Barack Obama, even though the former Vice President has a different, more progressive agenda that could sway some Republicans towards his platform. Nebraska’s five electoral votes from its popular vote and three congressional districts all go to Donald Trump.
Nevada (6)
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Nevada saw a relatively contentious election in 2016, with Hillary Clinton beating Trump with 49.72% of the vote compared to Trump’s 45.5%, but I see few ways this state could turn Republican in 2020; in fact, Trump’s electoral victory was the first time since 1976 this state has not sided with the winner, and before that it was 1908. Liberal Clark and Washoe counties make up over 85% of the state’s population, making it so even the plethora of rural areas Trump won in 2016 were not enough to mitigate that significant margin. Nevada has the fastest growing Latino population in the Western United States, a demographic that voted for Obama twice and is highly unlikely to vote for Trump due to his strong immigration policies, making it so he is unlikely to win the state even without Clark county as George W. Bush did in both 2000 and 2004. A Democratic governor and five of six Democratic congresspeople further solidify the silver state as blue, allowing Joe Biden to win Nevada’s electoral jackpot. Nevada’s six electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
New Hampshire (4)
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Home of the nation’s first primary, New Hampshire was an incredibly close state in 2016 and it will be in 2020. By the time all the votes were tallied, Hillary Clinton edged out a .37% victory over Donald Trump, or roughly 3,000 votes, by appealing to urban workers who were fond of Barack Obama’s presidency and wanted to see a female become the commander in chief. The Senate race was incredibly close too, with governor Maggie Hassan coming up just .2% over incumbent Kelly Ayotte after a reported one-hundred million dollar campaign; Ayotte likely lost many constituents by saying that Donald Trump was not a good role model for kids, and voting in Mike Pence for president certainly was not a smart political move on her part when so many people are dedicated to their parties. New Hampshire voted Democratic all but once between 1988 to 2012, so it was surprising to see such a narrow victory for Clinton when Obama succeeded by over five point margins. Afterall, the most populous county in the state, Hillsborough, leaned Republican in 2016, helping Trump to win three more precious counties over Romney in 2012, signifying a crumbling of the Obama coalition in the Granite State.
Trump’s voters could very well convince those who did not vote for him in 2016 to reconsider for 2020, since with an unemployment at 2.6% in February 2020, New Hampshire is tied with Virginia for the sixth lowest unemployment rate in the United States. Republican governor Chris Sununu offered even more positive economic statistics in December of last year, writing, “Seasonally adjusted estimates for December 2019 placed the number of employed residents at 757,710, an increase of 1,680 from the previous month and an increase of 12,480 from December 2018… From November to December 2019, the total labor force increased by 1,770 to 777,800. This was an increase of 14,190 from December 2018.” Overall, New Hampshire’s economy is performing well, which I predict will allow Trump to gain voters he lost in 2016 to edge out a narrow victory over Joe Biden in 2020. While the state’s congresspeople all belong to the Democratic party, New Hampshire has seen a conservative shift in the prior election akin to its neighbor Maine that I believe will allow Trump to further emphasize economic prosperity and compel a large number of voters to go out to the polls for him; it already worked earlier in the year when an unprecedented 129,000 voters turned out to vote for Trump in the Republican primary he was all but guaranteed to win. The Obama Coalition has dwindled in the state, and Joe Biden will not garner enough support among his constituents to beat Trump when New Hampshire’s economy is performing well. New Hampshire’s four electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
New Jersey (14)
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New Jersey is known as a Democratic stronghold not only for its seven-election straight blue voting record but also for its legislation. On February 4, 2019, governor Phil Murphy signed a $15 minimum wage bill, something long sought by Democrats, and there are talks of stricter gun laws such as through increasing permit prices, limiting the use of ghost guns, and more. The economy also has many liberal-leaning, highly educated industries, with a focus on pharmaceuticals and biotech. Trump’s lack of a comprehensive health care reform plan will likely turn off voters in those industries, and sprawling urban hubs such as Atlantic City and Newark will vote blue in 2020 judging by precedent. Furthermore, Hillary Clinton’s fourteen point margin of victory is not too much of a surprise when considering that only two of fourteen congresspeople are Republican, solidifying New Jersey as a state Joe Biden will almost certainly win in 2020. Although Trump does have supporters in rural counties such as Ocean and Sussex, they are not nearly enough to tip the scale in the GOP’s favor. New Jersey’s fourteen electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
New Mexico (5)
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New Mexico is a breeding ground for Democratic support; one of the Democrats largest constituencies, Hispanic and Latino voters, make up over 45% of the state’s population, helping the state to vote blue in six of the last seven elections. Unlike his political rival, Joe Biden does not want to completely decriminalize the southern border - a stance that will entice minority voters in the state to vote for their former vice president. And while Joe Biden struggled in engaging minority groups unlike Barack Obama who even managed to persuade native Americans in Navajo nation to overwhelmingly elect him - with Biden’s distant second place finish in Nevada a clear example - those groups will likely come out to support someone who they believe can “beat Donald Trump”; Clinton’s eight point victory in 2016 here was largely due to minority turnout in critical counties such as Bernalillo, Dona Ana, and Santa Fe where Trump lacked a significant base, even in a state where his immigration policies would most strongly apply. An expected absence of a popular third party candidate in 2020 as former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson was in 2016, who managed his best percentage nationwide with 9.34% of the vote in his home state, will likely turn voters back to a safe, trustworthy candidate in Biden who believe Trump’s presidency endangers America’s decency. New Mexico’s five electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
New York (29)
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New York stands as the last of the big three blue strongholds in our electoral journey across the county, although it has suffered a decline in congressional representation over recent decades. New York was the home state of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 2016, and Clinton secured the state’s 29 electoral votes with 59.01% of the vote compared to her opponent’s 36.52%; Clinton’s margin of victory was over four points less than Obama’s in 2012, with upstate New York voters turning out for a Republican candidate who they believed emphasized with their struggle since the 1980s, helping Trump to carry twenty more counties than Romney in 2012. However, an increase in Republican support should not undermine the state’s overwhelming liberal precedent; The last time New York voted for a Republican was 1984, and George W. Bush’s response to the September 11th attacks went over mostly favorably in the state, and even he was unable to secure a win over John Kerry in 2004 in the state most affected by the attacks.
In truth, the five boroughs of the most populated city in the U.S., New York City, prevent the state from voting Republican when the financial hub accounts for approximately 8.5 million of the state’s 19.5 million population; while Trump did win Staten Island, he lost the other four major boroughs which have wealthy college-educated businessman next to lower income families - a breeding ground for liberal perspectives, which might not be so shocking when the library of the central figure for the Democratic party lies only two hours away in Hyde Park: I am of course talking about Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Only five of 29 congresspeople are Republican, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is Democratic, and governor Anthony Cuomo is Democratic. Moreover, famous Democratic congresspeople such as Alexandra Ocasio Cortez from New York’s 14th district are incredibly likely to support the Democratic nominee, garnering numerous votes for Biden. Needless to say, Trump would have to campaign hard in New York City for even a chance at winning the state’s popular vote, and even then it would be all but impossible in the modern political landscape to come back against over a 22 point margin. New York’s twenty-nine electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
North Carolina (15)
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North Carolina is set to be another battleground state in the upcoming general election, even if the likelihood of a Trump victory remains high. While North Carolina voted for Barack Obama in 2008, it shifted back to conservatism in the previous two elections and gave Trump a 3.5 point margin of victory. North Carolina also has a history of enacting conservative legislation, with passage of a 2012 ballot measure to amendment one of the state’s constitution which prohibited the state from performing same sex marriages or civil unions; while the 2015 Supreme Court Case Obergefell v. Hodges made same sex marriage legal, the fact that the amendment garnered a majority of support remains. North Carolina is also considered a control state, meaning that alcohol cannot be sold in certain areas, which is a progressive legislation that is more associated with Republicans who do not want to decriminalize drugs - funnily enough, even when the state leads the nation in tobacco production. While several Meredith polls conducted in March 2019 have 59.4% of surveyors dissatisfied with the direction of the country, unemployment has decreased over one percent since Trump’s inauguration and gdp growth has been steady, which will likely entice rural workers who might not participate in polls prior to the election to vote for him again. While African Americans who account for over twenty percent of North Carolina’s population will turn out to vote for Joe Biden, the state’s Republican precedent and rural influence makes me believe this crucial swing state will lean Trump in 2020; if voters didn't vote for Obama in 2012, they likely will not vote for his former vice president in 2020 when the economy prospered for a vast majority of Trump’s administration. North Carolina’s fifteen electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
North Dakota (3)
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With a 35 point margin of victory in 2016, Donald Trump is almost certain to win North Dakota in 2020. Trump managed to improve on Mitt Romney’s one-sided 19.5 point victory in a traditionally red state, even winning out in urban counties such as Burleigh. The last time North Dakota voted blue was all the way back in 1964, and voters have little reason to change course when the unemployment rate in February 2020 was the lowest in the nation at 2.2%, and they are one of America’s leaders in income growth. Population growth over the last five years has been low, making it so the state’s large rural, mostly white workers will have a massive influence in 2020 like prior elections due to their tendency to lean Republican, but even then, Trump’s message resonates well with North Dakota’s agricultural-based economy, which produces several crops such as corn, barley, and durum wheat. The Dakota Access Pipeline begins in northwest North Dakota, and the project was massively advocated by Trump, putting the president in a positive light among workers who were at risk of losing their jobs. Moreover, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum as well as all three congresspeople are Republican, making a Trump victory all the more certain when a vast majority of the population has conservative ideologies that go against Biden’s liberal propositions. North Dakota’s three electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Ohio (18)
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The title of Adam Del Deo and James D. Stern’s documentary could not be more accurate: “...So Goes the Nation”. Ohio is the most famous bellwether in America, voting for the winner in 29 of the last 31 presidential elections. Trump’s massive appeal to blue collar workers in still recovering deindustrialized counties propelled him to a significant eight point margin of victory in 2016, the largest margin in the state since 1988. While Ohio has seen its electoral influence dwindle over the past several decades, all parties campaign tirelessly here and no Republican has ever won without the state. Since Trump’s inauguration, Ohio’s economy has been performing well: unemployment is down roughly one percent since January 2017 and gdp growth has been steady, but job growth has stalled, with The Columbus Dispatch reporting a loss of 2,200 manufacturing jobs in 2019, likely due to the impact of the tariffs enacted by the Trump administration; this will likely result in some voters going against Trump in 2020, despite lowered unemployment. However, there are multiple reasons I struggle to see Ohio turning against Trump: perhaps most importantly, Ohio has a tendency to vote for the incumbent with a larger percentage of the vote than the prior election, with presidents McKinley, Wilson, Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton being a few examples, making a strong case for a Trump victory. Also, agriculture accounts for a significant portion of the state’s seven-hundred billion dollar gross domestic product, and Ohio is one of the largest manufacturing states, particularly in automobile production, whose workers leaned Republican in the prior election. Moreover, despite tariff controversy, those manufacturing and agricultural workers are still likely to reelect Trump when the economy has been performing well and he has managed to keep most of his promises, such as renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement to hopefully benefit more businesses in the long term.
Democrats have also seemed to lose hope in the state since Trump’s victory. Governor Mike DeWine and 13 of 18 congresspeople are Republican, and on October 12, 2019 when the Democratic party hosted a major fundraising event, none of the major candidates at the time - Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders - showed up (U.S. News). While Joe Biden is leading by eight and six points in Quinnipiac and Emerson polls conducted in July and late September 2019, respectively, creating the possibility that Trump could win by a smaller margin than in 2016, partially through the African American vote overwhelmingly going to Biden, I cannot see Trump losing his major constituencies in Ohio enough for him to lose an eight point margin, especially when he has kept his promises to the blue collar workers in the state who gave him the win. Ohio’s eighteen electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Oklahoma (7)
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What happens when a Republican wins a large urban county? That’s correct, they are almost certain to win the state’s electoral votes, and Donald Trump’s performance in Oklahoma was no exception where he won every single county, a feat he only accomplished in two states, giving him 65.32% of the vote to Clinton’s 28.93%. The last time a Republican presidential candidate lost in Oklahoma was 1964, and for the past several years, Republicans have been winning by wider margins, with McCain securing a 31 point victory in 2008, then 33 for Romney in 2012, followed by 36 for Trump in 2016, and the state has good reason to reelect him for a second term: unemployment is down to 3.2% as of this February compared to 4.6% in January 2017, and in the last quarter of 2018, 7,004 jobs were added (Ok.gov). While the Oklahoma government has not updated this figure for 2019, it's safe to assume job growth is steady due to a combination of decreased unemployment and increased gdp growth. While Joe Biden does have some constituents here, including the 9.3% American Indian population, those voters are vastly outnumbered by the many rural workers in the state, who contribute to Oklahoma’s large oil, cattle, and wheat production, among other products. Tulsa is home to the world’s largest airplane maintenance facility, owned by American Airlines, and those manufacturing workers, while moderate according to a Crowdpac summary, will likely vote for Trump given the current state of the economy. In short, if Trump managed to lose a state in which he won every single county in the last election, it would be nothing short of nuclear fallout for the Republican party, which is unlikely to occur when the economy is performing well, practically guaranteeing Trump’s victory in a state where Joe Biden’s party has little influence. Oklahoma’s seven electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Oregon (7)
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It's perhaps unshocking that I predict Oregon will go to Joe Biden given how the state has been reliably Democratic since 1988 and in the past three elections Democratic presidential candidates have secured the state’s popular vote by over ten point margins. According to a 2013 Gallup poll, Oregon is the fifth most liberal state in the nation with 27.9% of surveyors saying they lean liberal, and is also the tenth least conservative state at only 33.6% of respondents claiming they were conservative. Like neighboring California and Washington, Oregon has a population centralized in metropolitan areas as well as a large number of foreign-born citizens, making it a Democratic stronghold where Republican candidates are unable to get their ideas through. Therefore, a lot of Democratic legislation gets passed, such as 1994’s Ballot Measure 16 which established the Death with Dignity Act that made Orgeon the first state to legalize physician assisted suicide so terminally ill patients could determine their time of death. Orgeon was also one of the first states to recognize homosexual marriage and legalize marijuana, which are liberal-leaning platforms. Barack Obama’s ability to reduce healthcare costs through Obamacare likely resonated with voters who had a positive outlook on Measure 16, and Biden wants to expand on Obamacare by giving Americans more choice in their providers and reducing healthcare costs, as well as restoring funding to planned parenthood. Trump claims that under his administration drug prices have gone down, but there is little evidence to back that up and healthcare was never one of his central platforms unlike Biden, making him all the more likely to garner support in a Democratic state such as Oregon. To his supporters in Oregon’s rural counties, a lacking health care initiative is completely sufficient, but to the state’s many voters centralized in urban areas, Trump’s strong immigration platform and tax breaks were unable to appeal to a majority of Orgeon’s voters in 2016 and are unlikely to be swayed with Joe Biden as the 2020 Democrtaic presidential candidate. Oregon’s seven electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Pennsylvania (20)
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Perhaps no name describes Pennsylvania more accurately than as the Keystone State: it's the state where the First Continental Congress met to declare independence on July 4, 1776, and Philadelphia served as a temporary capital from 1790 to 1800 as America was still in infancy as a nation. Pennsylvania’s large electorate serves a similarly important role in determining the president, and the state will be considered by both the Trump and Biden campaigns as must-wins. Trump received a narrow .72 margin of victory, carrying 56 of the state’s 67 counties, which amounted to two more than the prior election and seven more than 2008, demonstrating an increasingly Republican appeal in predominantly rural areas which are composed of blue-collar workers Trump cannot lose to secure his victory. There are a lot of reasons Pennsylvania could sway towards either party in 2020: congressional representation is evenly mixed, both chambers in the state’s General Assembly lean Republican, and Pennsylvania served as part of the blue wall from 1992-2012. Over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency, unemployment has decreased by .5% as of February 2020 and gdp growth has been steady around 3% per year, although population growth has stalled, which will undeniably serve as an important factor in the state’s many deindustrialized counties. Keep in mind, Pennsylvania used to be home to the largest steel producers in the world: US Steel and Bethlehem Steel, and now those factories stand, looming over communities and reminding them of their old prosperity. Needless to say, those counties needed change and a ray of light in their lives after struggling for decades, and viewed Trump as that hope, and under the state’s strong economic performance are likely to elect him again.
Trump mainly has his support among agricultural workers throughout the state and coal miners in northeastern Pennsylvania. The state’s Democratic constituents are centered in the southeast corner of the state near Philadelphia, a part of Pennsylvania where higher education jobs are more plentiful within the city’s numerous universities such as the University of Pennsylvania and Villanova, while many Fortune 500 companies are within the state’s borders such as Comcast, Hershey, and PNC Financial Services. Joe Biden is likely to receive a vast majority of votes in those counties due to his Democratic stance, and his polling spread is nearly four points ahead of Trump according to RealClearPolitics, and Trump faces a -15 disapproval spread according to RealClearPolitics.
Pennsylvania is home to one of the largest Amish populations in the US, a Republican constituency who with their sheer population in Lancaster county voted to elect Trump with 57.2% of the vote. Moreover, Pennsylvania in 2016 was truly emblematic of Trump’s victory where he managed to secure enough rural counties to win the electorate but lose large metropolitan districts, and I predict that trend will continue. Therefore, I predict that Pennsylvania will reelect Trump in 2020 given how the state’s economy is currently performing well and major constituencies lean Republican. Being his native state, Biden will garner many votes, and his health care plans in particular will resonate with many, but it will not be enough to surpass Trump’s rural dominance. In a close election, Pennsylvania’s twenty electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Rhode Island (4)
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While Barack Obama secured 62% of the vote in Rhode Island in both of his elections, Hillary Clinton only got 54.4% of the vote, marking a significant eight point loss for the Democratic party that came as a result of Trump’s ability to flip Kent county for the first time since Reagan’s landslide in 1984. However, Rhode Island is still incredibly likely to vote for Joe Biden in 2020: Clinton still led Trump by fifteen and a half points, the state has voted for a Republican only four times since 1928, all four congresspeople are Democratic, and only 14 Republicans comprise Rhode Island’s 113 member General Assembly. In fact, Rhode Island’s largest airport is named after former Democratic governor and senator Theodore Francis Green, making the state’s Democratic dominance all the more apparent. Afterall, a large center of the population is centered in urban Providence county, major industries such as health services lean liberal, and Trump was unable to appeal to voters in those areas. Joe Biden has many prominent Rhode Islanders supporting him, such as Lieutenant Governor Dan McKee, Central Falls Mayor James Diossa, state senator Louis DiPalma, and state representative Carlos Tobon, which will help garner even more votes to give him the win in a reliably Democratic New England state. Rhode Island’s four electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
South Carolina (9)
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In the early twentieth century Democrats would reliably win this state with over ninety percent of the vote, but South Carolina has been reliably Republican since 1964, voting for Republicans in every election since except 1976. Trump managed to win with over a 14 point margin, and he is likely to encounter similar statistics in 2020. While Biden secured an overwhelming victory in the South Carolina primary which helped garner momentum towards his eventual nomination, his constituencies do not account for enough of the population to secure his win when Obama lost in both of his elections here. Afterall, seven of nine congresspeople are Republican, including prominent senior senator Lindsey Graham, and Republicans control both houses of the General Assembly, showcasing another southern state where the Republican working-class platform appeals more. Also, South Carolina has over 4.9 million acres of farmland, or 25,000 farms, which according to the South Carolina Department of Agriculture contributes three billion dollars to annual gdp. While employees in the state’s large advanced manufacturing and aerospace industries tend to lean moderate, even if they voted for Biden, Trump is still highly unlikely to lose his 14 point margin due to the sheer quantity of rural workers who support Trump’s politics, especially when the state is tied with Colorado and Utah for the third lowest unemployment rate in the nation at 2.5% as of February 2020, which is particularly impressive given how population growth has remained steady. In fact, in an Emerson College poll surveying 755 registered voters in the state from February 28 to March 2, 2019, Trump had a four point lead over Biden, a sight that is rarely seen other than in states I predict he will win overwhelmingly. Like its southern cousins, South Carolina will have an influx of minority groups come out to support the Democratic nominee, but they will not be enough to surpass Republican voting blocs who have proved increasingly loyal over the course of Trump’s presidency. South Carolina’s nine electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
South Dakota (3)
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The Mount Rushmore state shares a lot of the same ideologies as its northern sibling, both voting for the Republican presidential nominee on every ballot since 1968, and I predict that streak will continue in 2020. South Dakota is an extremely rural state, with over 89% of land being devoted to farming, including the eastern part of the state that is part of the Corn belt, and those voters make up a significant portion of Trump’s base. Now, there are many ways that Trump could lose the thirty point margin he racked up here in 2016. For one, governor Kristi Noem claimed that trade wars with China have “devastated” her state, and if a subsequent increase in commodity prices is to be believed, that could sway voters towards Joe Biden. Later in the interview, Noem admitted that the Trump administration is trying to rectify unfair trade practices with China, making the economy appear better off than she previously implied. Unemployment rate has been largely unchanged since Trump’s inauguration, hovering around 3%, which could lead voters to believe Trump has done little to help their state. However, as the Republican party increasingly appeals to middle class workers, Democrats have little to gain in a massively rural state such as South Dakota where social welfare initiatives such as health care reform lack appeal. Despite an unchanged unemployment rate, South Dakota’s economy is performing well alongside the rest of the country, with GDP still up year on year, giving voters more reason to vote for Trump. If Obama lost here in 2008 and 2012, Biden is almost certain to lose in a state where Democrats can't even capture urban counties. For the fourteenth straight election, South Dakota votes for the Republican nominee like its northern sibling. South Dakota’s three electoral votes easily go to Donald Trump.
Tennessee (11)
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The volunteer state is home to two cities that have had a profound impact on American history: Nashville, the capital of country music, and Memphis, the home of the blues, with the latter catalyzing African American influence on national culture. Blacks and African Americans comprise a large portion of the state’s population at 17.1%, while in terms of religious demographics, over 81% of Tennessee residents are Christian and 73% are protestant. Tennessee voted against Al Gore in 2000 despite it being his home state. The last major party candidate to lose their home state before was George McGovern, who failed to convince his fellow South Dakotians of his radical message; needless to say, Tennessee has been reliably red since Gore’s loss, and Trump managed 60% of the vote compared to Clinton’s 34%, only losing three of the state’s 95 counties. Republican support has traditionally been strongest in eastern Tennessee, but Trump managed to secure all regions of the state and his rural firewall obliterated Clinton’s constituencies in urban counties. Nine of eleven congresspeople are Republican, including senior senator Lamar Alexander who played a critical role in not motioning witnesses to appeal in Trump’s impeachment trial, something that will likely propel Alexander to reelection this November given how strong Trump’s base is in the state. While Tennessee’s agricultural industry is a major economic contributor, with over 69,000 farms within the state’s borders, the tourism and automobile industries are similarly important, with Nissan, General Motors, and Volkwagan all having manufacturing facilities here. Moreover, Tennessee’s economy is performing well, with unemployment down to 3.4% as of February 2020 and gross domestic product increasing alongside real gdp in 2017 and 2018 (Statistica and the Federal reserve Bank of St. Louis). While Tennessee has not been as traditionally Republican as neighboring states such as Mississippi, it's a safe bet Trump will win here in 2020 given how the state is performing well economically and Trump’s rural firewall is unlikely to turn against him to Joe Biden - a candidate who lacks appeal to blue-collar workers in the state when Trump is more than adequate. Tennessee’s eleven electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Texas (38)
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Texas is to Republicans as California is to Democrats: a reliably substantial source of electoral votes. Texas has voted red in every presidential election since 1980, and Trump managed to secure 52% of the vote to Clinton’s 43%, carrying 227 of 254 counties. However, Trump won by nearly five fewer points than Romney in 2012, largely due to the state’s large Latino growth from 9.7 million in 2010 to 11.1 million in 2017 - a 14% increase - that strongly disliked Trump’s strong immigration stance. In fact, the number of Hispanics and Latinos living in Texas might be even larger than 11.1 million, since 39.6% of the 29 million population in July 2019 included that demographic, making the Republican party potentially lose even more percentage points in 2020. However, Texas is still incredibly Republican, with prominent Republicans John Cornyn and Ted Cruz serving as senior and junior senators respectively, and 23 of 36 congresspeople are Republican. The Grand Old Party has allowed the state to prosper under their leadership, with Texas GDP growing at a solid pace despite it being the second highest in the country at a whopping 1,896 billion dollars as of the third quarter of 2019. A large portion of GDP owes itself to hard-working farmers and drillers; Texas produces the most oil in America, with Statistica reporting a production of 1.28 billion barrels in 2018. Unemployment has decreased 1.3% since Trump’s inauguration, sitting at 3.5% in February 2020, remarkably close to the national average. Therefore, it's safe to say that blue-collar workers in the state will re-elect Trump given the sound state of the economy. As a side note, Texas is one of seven states that lack income tax, which gives workers more disposable income to spend towards luxury goods and employers more money to spend towards many beneficial aspects; as an ardent supporter of lower tax and interest rates, Trump will resonate with many voters in the state who similarly feel the government does not deserve so much money in taxes.
However, it's not impossible for Joe Biden to secure a victory here. Those within the Texas triangle - a megaregion that contains the sprawling cities of Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio - lean Democratic with many college students and minority groups, and a University of Texas and Texas Tribune poll surveyed among 1,200 registered voters in February 2018 indicated that Texas is massively partisan, with most Republicans supporting President Trump and most Democrats not supporting him. There will undeniably be some Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 that go against him in 2020, but they will likely not be enough to secure Joe Biden the victory in a state that has been solidly Republican for the past several decades. Moreover, while the Republican party has witnessed smaller victory margins in recent elections in Texas, and an influx of Latinos into a state that is projected to gain more electoral votes in 2024 could make this the ultimate battleground in the next decade, right now Trump is appealing to his Texan base with a growing, diverse economy, that is likely to secure him the state’s popular vote in the upcoming election. Texas’s thirty-eight electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
Utah (6)
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1964 marks the last time Utah voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. However, with only 45.54% of the vote, Trump received the lowest winning percentage for a president in the state since 1992, largely due to independent candidate and former CIA Operations Officer Evan McMullin appealing to his Mormon constituents to receive 21.45% of the vote. Utah is called the Mormon state for a reason: Church of Latter-Day Saints members account for roughly 62% of the population according to The Boston Globe, and multiple Mormon Wars were fought here. Subsequently, Mitt Romney received an outstanding 72% of votes as the first Mormon to run for president on a major ticket, and while he lost that race, he was voted in as Senator from Utah in 2018. Despite a 27 point decline in Republican voters in 2016 compared to the prior election, Trump is still incredibly likely to win the state in 2020: over 90% of the population is white, many of them rural and heavily religious, only one congressperson is Democratic, and coal mining is a large industry; infact, Bingham Canyon Mine in Utah is the world’s largest open pit mine. Biden’s environmental activism is unlikely to persuade voters in the mining industry, agricultural workers appreciate Trump’s appeal, and other industries such as tourism do not have the voting numbers to change the state to Democratic. Therefore, a solid wall of rural support will propel Republicans to another decisive victory in the state of the Great Salt Lake. Utah’s six electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
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Vermont (3)
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If Bernie Sanders’ overwhelming victory in the Vermont primary in 2016 and 2020 was any indication, this is a state that values change in the status quo. Prior to 1992, Vermont was a Republican stronghold, only voting for the Democratic presidential candidate once between 1856 and 1988, where in 1964 Vermonters sided against Barry Goldwater. However, Vermont always sided with the progressive wing of the Republican party, but as candidates turned increasingly conservative, Republicans began to lose touch, which is certainly out of the ordinary for what is an extremely rural, white-dominated state. To put Vermont’s progressive ideology into a contemporary perspective, Bernie Sanders, a Democratic Socialist, was the 37th mayor of Burlington from 1981-1989, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1991-2007, and has been a senator since 2007, and Sanders received an unprecedented 5.68% of votes through write-ins in the 2016 general election. While he was far from beating Clinton’s 55.72%, Vermont’s progressive ideology still holds strong, and as the Republican party has increasingly distanced itself from Vermont’s politics, it has little chance of winning here any time soon; afterall, Trump only won one of the state’s fourteen counties in 2016. While Vermonters will certainly wish that their former presidential candidate was on a major party ticket, Joe Biden is practically guaranteed to win the state since Obama won here in 2008 and 2012 and his ideologies appeal to Vermonters more than Trump’s conservative ones ever could. Vermont’s three electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Virginia (13)
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As the tenth state admitted to the Union, Virginia has had a fundamental influence on American history. Back in the colonial period, the first legislative Democratic government in America took place inside the House of Burgesses, and Jamestown was the first permanent English settlement in America. George Washington, the first of eight presidents from the state, was born in Westmoreland County and his continental army successfully gained independence after General Cornwallis surrendered in Yorktown. Today, Virginia stands strong as the home of the U.S. Naval Fleet and the Pentagon, and many would consider it a swing state in the upcoming general election. Helped by home state running mate Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton was able to amass over a 200,000 vote lead against Trump, marking the third election in a row where the state voted Democratic, indicating a political shift in a state that was once solidly Republican from 1968 to 2004. Now, Democrats hold a majority in both chambers of the General Assembly, and Biden is likely to capitalize on that shift. RealClearPolitics has Trump at double digit disapproval ratings, and Biden is leading in the polls by an average of six points. This is likely due to Virginia’s rapid population growth, which saw a 35% increase between 1990 and 2015 according to The Washington Post, particularly in the Washington metropolitan area where a surplus of liberal-leaning government jobs are in demand. In fact, in the 2017 fiscal year Virginia ranked second in total defense spending at a whopping $46.2 billion dollars - over 8% of the state’s GDP. While according to USA Today Virginia has the second highest percentage of veterans at 10.6% - a demographic that tends to lean Republican - Trump’s voters are likely to be outnumbered by Democratic constituents in urban counties. To further decrease Trump’s ability to win in the state, Virginia ranked eleventh highest in income rank in 2018, and only two of the fifteen highest income states I predict will vote Republican in the upcoming election, being Utah and Alaska; simply put, people who have more money tend to be college educated and consequently lean Democratic. To solidify Biden’s chances, 19.9% of the population is African American, a constituency that is almost certain to side with the Democratic nominee. Moreover, Trump’s large disapproval in an increasingly urban state will have Virginians side with the Democratic nominee for the fourth straight election. Virginia’s thirteen electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
Washington (12)
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Like its West coast brethren California and Oregon, Washington state is almost certain to vote for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton won by an impressive sixteen point margin, winning over voters in the state’s largest counties of King, Pierce, and Snohomish. Democratic candidates have a better chance of winning here due to the substantial portion of the population that belongs to a minority group, such as the 9.3% Asian or 12.9% Hispanic and Latino populations, which is part of the reason why nine of twelve congresspeople are Democratic, as well current governor and former presidential hopeful Jay Inslee, and Democrats hold a majority in both chambers of the Washington General Assembly. Additionally, a report by The Atlantic found that Washington is one of the least churched states in America, with over a third of residents not associating themselves with a specific faith; given how Republicans tend to attract religious demographics, Trump would have an uphill climb in convincing voters of his cause.
While it’s not impossible that Trump loses here, given how the unemployment rate has seen a slight decrease of 1.1% over the course of his presidency as of this February, and GDP is growing at one of the fastest paces in the nation, Washington has a history of Democratic legislation that make Joe Biden a better candidate for voters in the state. Washington’s minimum wage is the second highest in the nation at an hourly rate of $13.50, a precedent Biden would like to see rise even further, and supporters of gun control will be happy to hear that 2018 ballot initiative 1639 successfully passed and implemented restrictions on firearm ownership, such as making it illegal for someone under 21 to purchase a semi-automatic assault rifle. The ballot initiative also enhanced background checks and placed storage requirements on guns. As Biden was one of the supporters of the 1994 Brady Bill which placed a waiting period and background checks on handgun purchases, he is likely to resonate with voters here, especially given how he has already outlined his gun control initiatives such as increasing background checks and closing violence-related loopholes. Washington was also one of the first states to legalize recreational marijuana, and benefited hugely from the New Deal legislation of the 1930s by building numerous dams across the state, namely the Grand Coulee Dam, that provided many jobs at a time when citizens needed it most. Today, hydroelectric power is one of the state’s biggest economic contributors, undeniably giving Washington voters comfort with the Democratic party. Companies headquartered within the Seattle metropolitan area are perhaps the most well known economic contributors, such as Starbucks, Microsoft, and Amazon. Outside of Seattle, agricultural workers help produce the most apples in the nation and form a red wall of support for Trump, but not nearly enough to win the state’s twelve electoral votes. Moreover, a history of Democratic legislation that includes major policies that Biden supports secures him the final west coast state on our journey across America. Washington state’s twelve electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
West Virginia (5)
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The Mountain State that is home to the Blue Ridge Mountains and Shenandoah River is all but certain to take Trump on the country road to victory in 2020. In 2016, Trump led a coalition that beat Clinton here by an impressive 300,000 votes, reigning supreme in every single county in the state like Oklahoma. In fact, Trump’s 42.07 point margin of victory was the largest in West Virginia’s history, even though the state has been reliably Republican since 1996. While the unemployment rate has only seen a slight decrease since January 2017, standing at 4.9% in February 2020, the fifth highest in the nation, West Virginia’s gross domestic product has gone from a decrease in 2014-2016 to an increase over Trump’s presidency, offering voters a large incentive to reelect him; in the first quarter of 2019, West Virginia led the nation in GDP growth at 5.2% according to WSAZ-TV, which is now roughly $78.2 billion. West Virginia is the second largest producer of coal in the United States, only behind Wyoming, producing 79.8 million short Tonnes a year according to Mining technology; those coal workers have found someone to trust in Donald Trump, who has been one of their biggest advocates against the Democratic party whose environmental platforms threaten to take their jobs away. In fact, governor Jim Justice happens to be the wealthiest person in the state, and was a former agricultural and coal mining businessman, demonstrating how much this state values the coal industry. West Virginia also has one of the largest populations of citizens aged 65 or older, at 19.9% as of July 2019, a demographic that leans conservative. From the perspective of a West Virginia coal miner, the choice for president is clear: Joe Biden could take away your job and Trump is likely to champion your career and keep it growing. West Virginia’s five electoral votes overwhelmingly go to Donald Trump.
Wisconsin (10)
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Wisconsin marks the final swing state on our journey across America - a fitting culmination given its shocking turn in 2016 where Trump won by roughly 20,000 votes. What was a blue wall state from 1988-2012 had a drastically underestimated blue collar turnout come out to support Donald Trump, propelling him to swing over twenty counties from the prior election and secure the state’s ten electoral votes; yes, even having home state candidate Paul Ryan on the Republican ticket didn’t even get Mitt Romney close to a Wisconsin win in 2012. While the 2000 and 2004 elections both saw a contentious competition here, they both went for the Democratic nominee, and polls had Hillary Clinton leading by an average of six and a half points in a state her husband won twice. Now, Republicans have a majority in both chambers of the state’s legislature, undoubtedly swayed by a succeeding economy where unemployment was at the national average this February and gross domestic product has been increasing at a steady rate. Also, five of eight congressional districts voted for Republican candidates in the 2018 midterms, helping them to receive a majority and showcase the state’s Republican shift. Wisconsin is known as America’s dairyland for its second in the nation milk production according to Statistica, helping to bolster the agriculture industry in a state that is part of the corn belt; understandably, major food companies such as Oscar Meyer are headquartered in the state that help to employ thousands of workers. Construction and manufacturing jobs are also major industries, and those voters are likely to lean Republican in the upcoming general election due to Trump’s continued appeal to rust belt workers in southern Wisconsin. While Biden is likely to attract more minority voters than Clinton did in 2016, of which African Americans and Hispanics made up 6.7% and 6.9% in July 2019, respectively, Trump’s currently tied spread in the polls with him facing off versus Biden leads me to believe that the incumbent will secure Wisconsin by appealing to his rural constituents with a terrific economy and kept campaign promises. Afterall, a Marquette University Law School poll conducted in early 2020 showed that 55% of surveyors approved Trump’s handling of the economic sector, and job approval has had little change over the past year at slight disapproval.
Furthermore, unlike Michigan which I predict will vote for Biden, Wisconsin is a more rural state with far greater Republican support and less minority representation. A prosperous economy will allow Trump to capitalize on Wisconsin’s Republican shift in order to persuade his base in 2016 to vote for him again, alongside many new supporters who were fearful of an economic collapse under his presidency and would be uncertain with Biden serving as commander in chief. Wisconsin’s ten electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
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Wyoming (3)
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Wyoming is known for many things, including its status as the equality state by being the first state to give females the right to vote, the fact that it is the least populated state, and how Yellowstone National Park lies mostly within the state’s borders. Wyoming is also the largest coal producer, mining over 297.2 million short tonnes each year in areas such as the Powder River Basin. For that fact alone, it's unsurprising that Trump won big here with a 45.8 point margin of victory in 2016, carrying all but Teton county. Crude oil production is another large economic contributor and is an industry that is likely to support Trump. Under Trump’s administration, Wyoming has seen a boost in GDP after a decline from 2014-2016, as well as a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.6% in January 2017 to 3.7% in February 2020. To practically guarantee Trump’s chances, the equality state has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, all congresspeople are Republican, the governor is Republican, and the GOP outnumbers Democrats in the state’s sixty-person house and thirty-person senate in capital Cheyenne by 51 and 27, respectively. Therefore, Trump’s party affiliation and populist message is likely to secure him three electoral votes in a large agricultural state where Democratic platforms such as universal health care, free public tuition, climate change activism, and increased minimum wage do not appeal. And while Joe Biden does not advocate all of these policies, his leftist message will nonetheless deter rural workers. Wyoming’s three electoral votes go to Donald Trump.
District of Columbia (3)
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Ever since the twenty-third amendment was ratified in 1961 giving District of Columbia voters the right to vote in the electoral college, the home of our nation’s capital has always voted Democratic by margins that would make any candidate scream for joy. But how have Democratic candidates managed to win by an average of eighty-five percent of the vote, nevertheless those who went on to lose the electoral college in a landslide like McGovern in 1972 and Mondale in 1984? The answer is simple, really. A large minority population outnumbers caucasian individuals, with populations in July 2019 being 46.4% Black or African American and 11.3% Hispanic or Latino, compared to 45.6% white, which is common in a dense urban setting. Washington D.C. has the largest number of federal workers and D.C. has by far the largest gdp per capita of any American state or territory at $160,000 in 2018; Massachusetts is a distant second at $65,000, and as I have discussed, those who have more money tend to lean Democratic. And on a broader level, it's understandable why a national capital would lean Democratic given how the party stands for change, and there was a long fight over the position of the capital over fears of consolidated government in America’s infancy years; Washington D.C. stands for everything soldiers have fought for in this nation: a Democratic government and the right to freedom of speech - ideologies that a more traditional Republican approach inherently threatens. Joe Biden’s approval among African Americans further solidifies his win here, potentially going over Hillary Clinton’s eight-five point margin in 2016. Needless to say, if Donald Trump managed to win the District of Columbia, he would go on to be the first modern president to completely sweep the electoral college. The District of Columbia’s three electoral votes go to Joe Biden.
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Final Electoral Count
51 contests later, it's time for the final electoral count I predict for the 2020 American Presidential Election. I predict that with 31 states and Maine’s second congressional district, Donald Trump will go on to be the fourth president in a row to win reelection with 296 electoral votes compared to Joe Biden’s 242 electoral votes. Trump gains one more state than in 2016 by winning both New Hampshire and Maine, but loses Michigan to become the third president since 1900 to win reelection while losing electoral votes, and the first time two consecutive presidents won reelection while losing electoral votes. The other presidents were Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1940 and 1944, and Barack Obama. As Missouri and Ohio in particular become increasingly Republican, they are nevertheless able to maintain their bellwether status, and Donald Trump’s ability to secure those states as well as many key battlegrounds such as Florida and Wisconsin pilots him to an electoral victory by appealing to voters with a strong economy and maintained promises.
Joe Biden’s inability to capture rural workers showcases the dwindling strength of the Obama coalition, that despite his comeback win to the presidential nomination, is not enough to secure him the toughest job in the land. 2020 could very well go down as the first presidential contest following a critical election in 2016, where Trump’s prior victory realigned the demographics and messages of both major parties. The 2024 election will certainly put this idea to the test as Texas is likely to become a battleground and both parties will nominate new candidates to the presidency, and it is almost certain to be an exciting election. But, looking to the near future, Donald Trump’s second term will have him likely continue his economic and immigration policies, perhaps finishing the wall on the southern border. Peace agreements might come to fruition with North Korea, such as finally ending the Korean War, and a more bipartisan congress could convene as hopes of impeachment have faded away. The world can only hope for the commander-in-chief's success.
Thank you so much for watching this podcast. It’s been an incredible experience journeying across the nation, discovering many different mindsets that help create these United States. But remember that these are only predictions - anything between now and November can change because of viewers like you going out to the polls and advocating for what you believe in. Afterall, only 500 votes decided the outcome of Florida in the 2000 election, and Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were all won by less than 50,000 votes in 2016. Never doubt that your opinion does not matter, because it absolutely does. Whether it be a presidential election, senate race, or even forming a school club, every single voice makes a difference and creates a better world for democracy to thrive in. So go out there and make yourself heard, you never know just how much of an impact you can make on democracy.
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A Podcast by Michael Richardson
Editing Assistance
Ms. Moreau
Mr. Walsh
Special Thanks
All of my incredible teachers, whose steadfast kindness and boundless knowledge will inspire future generations
Sources:
50States.com
270towin
ABC News
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Thumbnail Images Courtesy Of:
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Wikipedia
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Electoral college picture was made using 270towin
Podcast edited with iMovie
